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2016 beldame stakes preview entries and odds

´╗┐Belmont Park in Elmont, New York will be the scene of the Grade 1 Beldame Stakes on Saturday, October 1. Fillies and mares three years old and upward will be featured when they take to Belmont Park's dirt track and race 1 1/8 miles for the winner's share of the $400,000 purse.

Seven older female distaffers will take to the track in the Beldame Stakes - race 10 on Belmont Park stacked Saturday card. Post time is 5:45 PM. Here is a look into the past performances of all seven combatants for this Grade 1 stakes.

2016 Beldame Stakes Race Preview at Belmont Park

Forever Unbridled 1-1 - consistent Dallas Stewart trained filly has four wins, three seconds and three third place finishes in 12 career starts. She enters off an OK third in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga August 27 which followed a second to Cavorting in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes at Belmont Park June 11 and a three race win streak - the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Stakes at Oaklawn Park April 15, the Grade 3 Houston Ladies Classic January 30 and the Grade 3 Comely Stakes at Aqueduct November 28. Before that was a fifth in the Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes in October, an ugly eleventh in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks May 1 and consecutive third place finishes - the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks March 28 and the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra Stakes in February. Forever Unbridled has been looked good in her last five starts overall and hopes to be in the mix again Saturday. Joel Rosario rides the even money favorite from gate 2.

Off the Tracks 5-2 - Todd Pletcher trained filly has eight career starts - four wins, a second and two third place finishes. She broke maiden at first asking at Gulfstream last June and went on to a terrific win in the Grade 3 Schuylerville Stakes at Saratoga last July. She returned from a seven month layoff February 21 and posted a good win by 4 1/2 lengths in the minor Margate Handicap February 21 and followed that with an OK third as favorite in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks April 2, a game second behind Carina Mia in the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes June 11, an impressive win in gate-to-wire fashion in the Grade 1 Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park July 2, an OK third in the Grade 1 Test Stakes August 6 and a somewhat disappointing fourth in the Grade 2 Prioress Stakes at Saratoga September 4. Off the Tracks has placed in seven of eight career starts - competitive virtually every time out. She tries to avenge her worst career result from the outside post 7 with John Velazquez in the irons of the second betting choice.

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Going for Broke 6-1 - Chad Brown trained filly has three wins and two second place finishes in five career starts. Last time out was an OK stakes debut - a distant second behind the terrific Songbird in the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga August 20 which followed a three race win streak -an Allowance Optional Claiming score July 27 after wins in an Allowance June 12 and a MSW in May - both at Belmont Park. Going for Broke has been impressive so far and looks to keep a strong run going from post 5 Saturday. Irad Ortiz rides.

Penwith 10-1 - Kiaran McLaughlin trained mare has five wins, two seconds and three third place finishes in 17 career starts. She arrives in OK form - a second as favorite last time out in the minor Lady Jacqueline Stakes at Thistletown August 27 followed a third in the Grade 3 Delaware Handicap July 16 and a couple of unflattering results - a sixth in the Grade 1 La Troienne Stakes at Churchill Downs May 6 and a fourth in the Grade 1 Santa Margarita Stakes at Santa Anita in April. Before that were consecutive wins by a combined five lengths - by an impressive three lengths in the Grade 1 Royal Delta Stakes at Gulfstream February 13 and an Allowance Optional Claiming by two lengths at Santa Anita January 21 and nearly a year away from the track. She also posted an OK third in the Grade 2 Indiana Oaks in October of 2014. Penwith looks to snap a four race win streak and for her second graded stakes score this year when she leaves from gate 4. Javier Castellano has been tabbed to ride.

Rachel's Temper 10-1 - Charlton Baker trained mare has 32 career starts with six wins, six seconds and five third place finishes. She makes her graded stakes debut Saturday off a good win in the minor Summer Colony Stakes at Saratoga August 22, a second in an Allowance Optional Claiming on that track July 27 and a seventh a win and a third respectively in a trio of Allowance races on this track. She steps up on the heels of a career best effort and will try to build on that from post 3. Manuel Franco gets the call.

Paola Queen 15-1 - has eight career starts for trainer Gustavo Delgado with two wins, two seconds and a third place finish. Last time out was a career best effort - a win over Off the Tracks at 55-1 in the Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga August 6. That result followed a fifth in the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes at Belmont Park June 11, a disappointing ninth in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks May 6 and a good second in her stakes debut April 2 - the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. Before that she broke maiden February 14 in her fourth career start and had a second, a third and a fifth to start her career. Paola Queen was good at the beginning of the year and enters off her best result to date. She hopes to build on that effort from gate 6 with Luis Saez aboard.

Tiger Ride 15-1 - Graham Motion trained filly has five wins, two seconds and two third place finishes in 14 career starts. She posted a respectable second in the Grade 2 Inside Information Stakes at Gulfstream Park March 19 and a career best effort - a victory in the Grade 3 Pin Oak Valley View Stakes in October. She has been OK lately - a second last time out in the minor Summer Colony Stakes at Saratoga August 22 followed a respectable third in the Dr. James Penny Memorial Stakes at Parx July 4, an eighth in the Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap at Pimlico May 21 and a sixth in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes at Keeneland in April. She also had a nice win in the minor Indiana Grand Stakes last September 9, a fourth in the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks and another minor stakes win - the TaWee Stakes last July. Tiger Ride has been up and down and will seek her first win in nearly a year Saturday from the rail with Jose Ortiz aboard.

Find me a winner try this trio of outsiders at doha and torrey pines


With longstanding fixtures on both European and PGA Tours, there are few weeks, if any, offering clearer indicators. Doha G.C. has hosted the Qatar Masters since 1998 while the Farmers Insurance Open has been going for over 60 years.

Any reading of either bank of course form should offer a note of caution against staking too heavily on outsiders. To be frank, it is unlikely that either winner will come from anywhere near this column's triple-figure price range.

Almost every Qatar winner since the event started attracting strong, world-class fields in 2005 has been pretty obvious and the two outsiders - Chris Wood and Paul Lawrie - had claims as wind specialists and, in the case of the latter, a previous win here.

The US event, played at sometimes US Open venue Torrey Pines, was totally dominated by seven-time champion Tiger Woods at the start of the century. More recently, two-time winner Brandt Snedeker, Jason Day and Bubba Watson have re-affirmed the form trend.

That doesn't, of course, mean there are no value bets to be found among the outsiders. Far from it. However, a sensible strategy may be to keep outright stakes low whilst utilising all that course form to identify value in the each-way and place markets.

Consistent Campillo is improving and looks suited to the course in Qatar

Back Jorge Campillo 0.5u @ [170.0]

Back Jorge Campillo 3u @ 9/2 for a Top 20 Finish

Campillo perfectly illustrates this point about finding the right market. In five seasons, the 30 year-old Spaniard has only rarely featured on weekend leaderboards but has become progressively consistent, registering an impressive 12 top-20 finishes last term, including this event. That equates to 43% of strokeplay starts, considerably higher than the 18% implied by odds of 9-2 in that market.

Most notably, the highlight of a strong finish to the season was ninth place at the elite DP World Tour Championship, closing with 68/65. The stats suggest he's well suited to this Gulf venue too. Steve Rawlings identifies driving distance and par-five performance as the key indicators and I'd add putting average. Campillo ranks in the top-30 among these for all three.

Take big odds about this pair of top-class prospects at the Farmers

1u each-way Grayson Murray @ 100/1

One of the likeliest routes to finding a massive priced winner is to identify a star of the future whilst they are still under the betting radar. Granted, that task gets harder with every year and every batch of brilliant youngsters but make no mistake, there is a lot to like about Grayson Murray's early career.

A brilliant junior, once rated the best of his age group in the USA, Murray waited until the relatively late age of 21 to turn professional. His progress was immediate, cruising through the Tour in his rookie season, winning his final event.

At this higher level, he's made an instant impression, finishing eighth at Jackson and 12th at La Quinta last week. Fulfilling his dream to be world number-one is regarded as 'doable' so it may well be worth persevering with Murray whilst still available at big odds.

Back Si Woo Kim 0.5u @ [230.0]

Back Si Woo Kim @ for a Top 20 Finish 2u @ 11/2

Similarly, it was impossible to not be impressed with Si-Woo Kim's rookie season, in which he consistently demonstrated the ability to compete at this level. Winner of the Wyndham and runner-up in the Barbasol Championships, Kim registered 13 top-25s including the closing three FedEx Cup events. He finished 18th on last year's Torrey Pines debut, despite a poor weekend.

Given those numbers, his odds both for the win and the Top 20 Finish look absolutely huge, perhaps displaying the nationality bias we've often seen in golf betting. I've long argued that the market seems to take longer to react, and can be prematurely dismissive, of non Americans or Brits.