Find me a winner try this trio of outsiders at doha and torrey pines

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With longstanding fixtures on both European and PGA Tours, there are few weeks, if any, offering clearer indicators. Doha G.C. has hosted the Qatar Masters since 1998 while the Farmers Insurance Open has been going for over 60 years.


Any reading of either bank of course form should offer a note of caution against staking too heavily on outsiders. To be frank, it is unlikely that either winner will come from anywhere near this column's triple-figure price range.


Almost every Qatar winner since the event started attracting strong, world-class fields in 2005 has been pretty obvious and the two outsiders - Chris Wood and Paul Lawrie - had claims as wind specialists and, in the case of the latter, a previous win here.


The US event, played at sometimes US Open venue Torrey Pines, was totally dominated by seven-time champion Tiger Woods at the start of the century. More recently, two-time winner Brandt Snedeker, Jason Day and Bubba Watson have re-affirmed the form trend.


That doesn't, of course, mean there are no value bets to be found among the outsiders. Far from it. However, a sensible strategy may be to keep outright stakes low whilst utilising all that course form to identify value in the each-way and place markets.


Consistent Campillo is improving and looks suited to the course in Qatar


Back Jorge Campillo 0.5u @ [170.0]

Back Jorge Campillo 3u @ 9/2 for a Top 20 Finish


Campillo perfectly illustrates this point about finding the right market. In five seasons, the 30 year-old Spaniard has only rarely featured on weekend leaderboards but has become progressively consistent, registering an impressive 12 top-20 finishes last term, including this event. That equates to 43% of strokeplay starts, considerably higher than the 18% implied by odds of 9-2 in that market.


Most notably, the highlight of a strong finish to the season was ninth place at the elite DP World Tour Championship, closing with 68/65. The stats suggest he's well suited to this Gulf venue too. Steve Rawlings identifies driving distance and par-five performance as the key indicators and I'd add putting average. Campillo ranks in the top-30 among these for all three.


Take big odds about this pair of top-class prospects at the Farmers


1u each-way Grayson Murray @ 100/1


One of the likeliest routes to finding a massive priced winner is to identify a star of the future whilst they are still under the betting radar. Granted, that task gets harder with every year and every batch of brilliant youngsters but make no mistake, there is a lot to like about Grayson Murray's early career.


A brilliant junior, once rated the best of his age group in the USA, Murray waited until the relatively late age of 21 to turn professional. His progress was immediate, cruising through the Web.com Tour in his rookie season, winning his final event.


At this higher level, he's made an instant impression, finishing eighth at Jackson and 12th at La Quinta last week. Fulfilling his dream to be world number-one is regarded as 'doable' so it may well be worth persevering with Murray whilst still available at big odds.


Back Si Woo Kim 0.5u @ [230.0]

Back Si Woo Kim @ for a Top 20 Finish 2u @ 11/2


Similarly, it was impossible to not be impressed with Si-Woo Kim's rookie season, in which he consistently demonstrated the ability to compete at this level. Winner of the Wyndham and runner-up in the Barbasol Championships, Kim registered 13 top-25s including the closing three FedEx Cup events. He finished 18th on last year's Torrey Pines debut, despite a poor weekend.


Given those numbers, his odds both for the win and the Top 20 Finish look absolutely huge, perhaps displaying the nationality bias we've often seen in golf betting. I've long argued that the market seems to take longer to react, and can be prematurely dismissive, of non Americans or Brits.